OTERIA Flare Predictor Tool 2.0

Flare statistics and forecast of Catania Region 78

Figures are reproduced twice per hour with the then available data. Last available data from Catania Astrophyical Observatory is from 2011-5-9T06:30

The above Figures show the flaring statistics and forecast for the Catania Region 78. On the horizontal axis we have days backwards from the last day the region has been observed. No observations are available for the hatched or grey days.

The top 3 plots show, as colored bars, the forecasted % chance for having respectively C, M and X-flares (see label on top of each plot) in Catania region 78 in the next 24 hours. This forecast is made on the basis of the the McIntosh class of the present sunspot group, as identified by Catania Astrophysical Observatory. For clarity the bars are colored red when chance > 50%, colored orange when 20% < chance < 50%, etc.

In the same plots, past flares are indicated by blue spikes. The magnitude of the flare can be read from the length of the spike. For example, an M2.3 flare will be seen on as blue spike in the second plot with a 'length of 23%'

The third plot (labelled X-flares) shows additionally for every day the McIntosh class of the present sunspot group.

The last plot shows the number of sunpots in the group (red curve) and the total area of the sunspots (blue curve).