SIDC Ursigram

3-day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity: Latest Issue and Archive

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2022 Jan 17 12:04:05

There are 7 visible active regions on the solar disk (alpha and beta
magnetic field configurations). Three C-class flares occurred in the past
24 hours, the strongest was a C2.6 flare from NOAA AR 2929, peaking at
20:21 UT. More C-class flares can be expected in the next 24 hours, M-class
flares are possible.

There were two faint and slow CMEs on 15 January, and one on 16 January,
related to eruptions around NOAA AR 2929. The eruptions were mostly
directed to the north, but since the active region was close to central
meridian, an Earth directed component cannot be discarded (there is only
sparse STEREO data available), with an estimated arrival time around 19-20
January.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux increased slightly above the 1000 pfu alert threshold
and is expected to remain close to the threshold during the next 24 hours.
The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to increase
in the next 24 hours.
The Earth is still under the influence of a High Speed Stream (HSS) with
solar wind speeds close to 600 km/s in the past 24 hours (now around 550
km/s) and interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. The interplanetary
magnetic field phi angle was predominately in the negative sector (directed
towards the Sun) over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached (briefly) minor storm levels in Belgium
(K_Bel = 5) in the past 24 hours, and active conditions were reached at
planetary levels (Kp = 4). The CME from 14 January could arrive to the
Earth in the coming 24 hours, more active to minor storm conditions can be
expected then.

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SIDC Fast Alert Products

presto
2022 Jan 15 1134 UTC
A moderate geomagnetic storm (NOAA Kp index 6) was detected for the synoptic [more]

cactus
2022 Jan 12 1041 UTC
A halo or partial-halo CME was detected with the following characteristics: [more]

quieta
2022 Jan 06 1235 UTC
END OF ALL QUIET ALERT ...................... The SIDC [more]

flaremail
2021 Oct 28 1604 UTC
A class X1.0 solar X-ray flare occurred on 2021/10/28 with peak time 15:34UT [more]




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