:Issued: 2004 Nov 05 1239 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41105
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Nov 2004, 1221UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Nov 2004 until 07 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Major geomagnetic storm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Nov 2004  10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Nov 2004  10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 036
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Nov 2004  10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 019
COMMENT: NOAA ARs 0696 and 0693 (Catania sunspot groups 61 and 57 respectively)
have the beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. So, we expect an X-flare to
occur, probably in the NOAA AR 0696 which produced several M-flares recently.
Geomagnetic disturbances of at least a minor storm level are expected because of
several halo CMEs erupted from the NOAA AR 0696. This active region is very
close to the central meridian now, so any halo CME erupting from it will reach
the Earth and probably produce a significant geomagnetic disturbance.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 4 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 136
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 017
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 011

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
04  2142  2229 2253 N11E19 M2.5 1N  1800 CTM/1,II/1                 61 0696                     
04  2253  2309 2326 N08E18 M5.4     1500 IV/1                       61 0696 GOES-12/SXI derived location
05  1123  1130 1133 N07E15 M4.0                                     61 0696 GOES-12/SXI movie derived location
END
BT
 
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# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                          #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                                 #
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