SIDC URSIGRAM 40206 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Feb 2004, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 06 Feb 2004 until 08 Feb 2004) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Feb 2004 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 021 PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Feb 2004 10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 016 PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Feb 2004 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 011 COMMENT: The Earth is now inside the fast solar wind flow. Some weak geomagnetic disturbances are thus possible. However, the coronal hole that produced this fast flow is now being rotated to a position behind the limb. A fast flow may also come from the southern polar coronal hole. SOLAR INDICES FOR 5 Feb 2004 SUNSPOT INDEX : 089 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 106 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 020 AK WINGST : 016 ESTIMATED AP : 015 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT