SIDC URSIGRAM 40214
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Feb 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 14 Feb 2004 until 16 Feb 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Feb 2004  10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Feb 2004  10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 032
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Feb 2004  10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 011
COMMENT: Flaring activity is very low. The background radiation is decreasing
and is now at the bottom of the B-level The solar wind speed has still an
elevated value of 620 km/s. Last night, Feb 13-Feb 14, a minor storm was
reported by Izmiran (K=5), NOAA active conditions (K_p=4). This morning, we are
experiencing quiet conditions, which is possibly caused by the active region
imbedded in the coronal hole (clearly visible in EIT 284). Although, active
conditions are possible for the rest of the day and tomorrow depending on the
strength of the B_z component of the interplanetary magnetic field. A partial
halo CME has been reported by CACTus and is visible in LASCO-movies. The CME is
determined as backsided and so not effecting earth.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Feb 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 070
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 108
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 041
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 029

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT