SIDC URSIGRAM 40321
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Mar 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Mar 2004 until 23 Mar 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Mar 2004  10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Mar 2004  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Mar 2004  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 021
COMMENT: Flaring activity just got a boost: a C6.4 flare is visible in
GOES-data. Since no EIT-images are available, it is unclear with active region
caused the flare. We expect further C-class flare with a possibility of an
isolated M-flare. Solar wind speed is still moderate: 400 km/s. NOAA reports
estimated planetary K indices of 3. >From tomorrow March 22 on, periods of
active geomagnetic conditions are possible. A recursive small coronal hole will
be at geoefective position. Last rotation, Wingst measured two times a K-index
of 4 during a period of 2 days.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Mar 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 088
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 114
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 025
AK WINGST           : 016
ESTIMATED AP        : 015

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT