:Issued: 2011 Mar 09 1300 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 10309 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Mar 2011, 1238UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 09 Mar 2011 until 11 Mar 2011) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Mar 2011 10CM FLUX: 157 / AP: 003 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Mar 2011 10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 012 PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Mar 2011 10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 007 COMMENT: NOAA AR 11165 (Cat 18) produced three M-flares yesterday, the largest one was a M5.3 flare peaking at 10h44. Associated with an M1.5 at 20h16, there was a CME observed by LASCO and STEREO. It was directed towards the south, so we do not expect it to impact the Earth significantly. Another M1,7 flare occurred this morning around 11h07, with an associated weak type II radio burst observed in Humain. No data is available yet to determine its location on disk. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is still ongoing, but decreasing in intensity. Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet, but are expected to rise to unsettled to active levels on March 10 due to the arrival of a CME that was observed on March 7 around 20h12. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 080, BASED ON 04 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 8 Mar 2011 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 152 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 155 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 009 AK WINGST : 006 ESTIMATED AP : 005 ESTIMATED ISN : 082, BASED ON 20 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE 08 1035 1044 1055 S17W86 M5.3 1F 18 1165 08 1808 1828 1841 M4.4 VI/2 18 1165 08 1946 2016 2119 M1.4 VI/2 18 1165 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#