:Issued: 2012 Apr 18 1351 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20418
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Apr 2012, 1330UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Apr 2012 until 20 Apr 2012)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Apr 2012  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Apr 2012  10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 023
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Apr 2012  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 004
COMMENT: During last 24 hours only few C class flares were observed. We
expect C-class flares and possibly M-class flare. One of the newly
emerged NOAA AR 1462 (Catania 6) produced C3.1 flare peaking at 03:07
UT. The flare was associated with the weak full halo CME propagating
with the speed of about 450 km/s, possibly heading towards the Earth. At
the moment of writing the STEREO/SECCHI COR2 data are not available, and
the possible arrival time of the halo CME cannot be estimated. Solar
wind speed is growing and is, at the moment, about 450 km/s. In next 48
hours we expect active geomagnetic conditions, due to the arrival of the
partial halo CME from April 15. The glancing blow, from the CME-driven
shock wave associated with the partial halo CME from April 16, is
possible on April 19 .






TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 076, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Apr 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 079
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 114
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 018
AK WINGST              : 010
ESTIMATED AP           : 010
ESTIMATED ISN          : 050, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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