:Issued: 2012 May 10 1242 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 20510 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 10 May 2012, 1223UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 10 May 2012 until 12 May 2012) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 10 May 2012 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 11 May 2012 10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 12 May 2012 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 007 COMMENT: NOAA AR 11476 is growing in size and number of spots. Since yesterday noon, several major M-flares have been released. There is no indication that his will stop soon, at the contrary, chances for X-class flaring are becoming substantial. As the active region is approaching central meridian, the chances for associated particle storms are also increasing. The solar wind speed is still elevated but geomagnetic activity has reduced to quiet levels. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 066, BASED ON 15 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 9 May 2012 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 113 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 127 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 040 AK WINGST : 031 ESTIMATED AP : 028 ESTIMATED ISN : 061, BASED ON 24 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE 08 1302 1308 1312 N13E44 M1.4 1F 69 1476 09 1221 1232 1236 N13E31 M4.7 1N 110 1476 09 1402 1408 1414 N06E22 M1.8 1B 68 III/2 1476 09 2101 2105 2109 M4.1 240 1476 10 0411 0418 0423 N13E22 M5.7 2B 690 III/2 1476 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#