:Issued: 2012 Jun 02 1218 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20602
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Jun 2012, 0910UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 02 Jun 2012 until 04 Jun 2012)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Jun 2012  10CM FLUX: 134 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jun 2012  10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jun 2012  10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 032
COMMENT: Five C flares occurred in the past 24 hours. The brightest one
was a C3.3 flare produced by AR 11488 on the west limb, which peaked at
22:41 UT on June 1, and was accompanied by a post-eruptive arcade and a
type II radio burst with estimated speed of 936 km/s. The C3.3 flare was
also accompanied by a bright CME first detected by LASCO C2 at 23:12 UT.
This CME is not expected to be geo-effective. More C flares are
expected, especially from NOAA AR 11493, 11496, 11488 and 11497, with a
chance for an isolated M-flare.
The Earth currently resides within a low speed solar wind stream with
velocity around 350 km/s, with the IMF varying between 5 and 10 nT. The
geomagnetic field was at quiet levels (Dourbes K between 1 and 3; NOAA
Kp between 1 and 2) during the past 24 hours. Quiet levels (K Dourbes <
4) are expected for June 2 and 3. Active geomagnetic levels with a
chance of minor storm intervals are predicted for June 4, due to the
arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 106, BASED ON 05 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 1 Jun 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 158
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 129
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 014
AK WINGST              : 009
ESTIMATED AP           : 008
ESTIMATED ISN          : 082, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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