:Issued: 2012 Jul 06 0331 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 20705 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Jul 2012, 1222UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Jul 2012 until 07 Jul 2012) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 009 PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 010 COMMENT: Solar activity remains at active levels: twelve M-flares were observed since our last bulletin. The largest one was an M6.1 flare, which occurred just before sending at 11:44 UT. All these M-flares were produced by NOAA AR 1515 (Cat 99), except for the M1.8 flare at 16:39 UT yesterday in NOAA AR 1513 (Cat 96). We expect more flaring at M-class level from these regions and possibly also from NOAA AR 1519 (Cat 06) that is turning over the east limb. There is a small chance for an X-flare from region 1515. In case of such a big flare, a proton event is possible as this region is moving towards the west solar limb. All CMEs associated with the M-flares were directed towards the south, except for the one associated with the M1.8 flare in NOAA AR 1513. Both STEREO/COR2 instruments show an earth-directed limb CME for this event (entering the COR2-B FOV at 17:24, and the COR2-A FOV at 18:39 after a data gap). This event is hard to see in the SOHO/LASCO images. We estimate the speed of this CME to lie around 470 km/s. This corresponds to an arrival at earth late on July 7 or early on July 8, at which time unsettled (K=3) to active (K=4) geomagnetic conditions are possible. For now, we expect quiet geomagnetic conditions to continue. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 077, BASED ON 12 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 4 Jul 2012 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 183 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 163 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 011 AK WINGST : 010 ESTIMATED AP : 010 ESTIMATED ISN : 086, BASED ON 31 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE 04 0947 0955 0957 S20W18 M5.3 2B 79 99 1515 04 1207 1224 1232 S17W29 M2.3 78 III/IV 99 1515 Location from Solar Monitor 04 1435 1440 1442 S18W18 M1.3 SN 99 1515 04 1633 1639 1648 N14W34 M1.8 2N 200 III/3,V/2,II/1 96 1513 04 2203 2209 2215 S16W24 M4.6 220 II/1,III/2 99 1515 Location from Solar Monitor 04 2347 2355 0002 S16W24 M1.2 IV/1 99 1515 Location from Solar Monitor 05 0105 0110 0115 S18W26 M2.4 3N 99 1515 05 0235 0242 0247 S18W27 M2.2 99 1515 Location from Solarsoft 05 0325 0336 0339 S18W29 M4.7 III/1 99 1515 Location from solarsoft 05 0649 0658 0705 S18W39 M1.1 1F 99 1515 05 0740 0745 0748 S18W30 M1.3 99 1515 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#