:Issued: 2012 Jan 21 1225 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20121
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Jan 2012, 1158UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Jan 2012 until 23 Jan 2012)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 147 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Catania sunspot groups 20 and 21 (NOAA ARs 1401 and 1402
respectively) remain large and have beta configuration of their
photospheric magnetic field. We expect flaring activity on the C-level,
with an M-class flare possible but not very likely. The solar proton
flux at energies above 10 MeV is still above the background, although
below the event threshold. An SEP event later today or tomorrow is not
excluded due to expected arrival of the shock from interacting CMEs
(observed on the Sun on January 18 and 19). Another possible consequence
of the expected shock arrival is minor to moderate geomagnetic storm
conditions. The (complex) ICME driving the shock is expected to miss the
Earth or to have only a glancing blow. Currently the Earth is inside a
slow (around 300 km/s) solar wind flow with slightly elevated (around 7
nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic
conditions in the coming hours (until the expected shock arrival).

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 065, BASED ON 03 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Jan 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 162
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 141
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 009
AK WINGST              : 005
ESTIMATED AP           : 004
ESTIMATED ISN          : 063, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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