:Issued: 2012 Oct 08 1243 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 21008 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Oct 2012, 1241UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 08 Oct 2012 until 10 Oct 2012) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 033 PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 024 COMMENT: Solar activity has been active during the past 24 hours, featuring an M flare and three C flares. The M flare was triggered by an Active Region behind the East limb and had its peak value of M2.3 around 11:17 UT on October 8. More C flares are expected within the next 48 hours, with a chance of an M flare. ACE observed a shock in the solar wind around 4:30 UT on October 8. The solar wind speed jumped from about 320 km/s to about 380 km/s, while the IMF jumped from 8 to 16 nT. This shock signature is probably related to the CME from October 5. Active (NOAA Kp = 4) and minor storm (NOAA Kp = 6) geomagnetic levels were registered respectively during 3h-6h and 6h-12h on October 8. This coincided with Bz values below -10 nT. At the time of this ursigram (12:30 UT), the IMF has fallen down to 5 nT, so quiet (K Dourbes < 4) geomagnetic conditions are expected for October 8 and 9. Quiet to active (K Dourbes = 4) geomagnetic levels are possible on October 10, due to the possible influence of a recurring coronal hole. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 034, BASED ON 14 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 7 Oct 2012 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 098 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 019 AK WINGST : 008 ESTIMATED AP : 006 ESTIMATED ISN : 028, BASED ON 16 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#