:Issued: 2012 Jan 06 1243 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20106
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Jan 2012, 1218UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 06 Jan 2012 until 08 Jan 2012)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 007
COMMENT: The Sun has produced two C flares in the last 24 hours. A C1.4
flare was released by NOAA AR 11389, peaking at 06:08 UT, January 6. A
C2.2 flare peaked at 11:25 UT on January 6. More C flares are likely to
occur within the next 24 hours. A CME associated with the C2.1 flare and
filament eruption of 12:38 UT on January 5 was first observed by COR2 B
on 12:40 UT. Due to data gaps, only a few images were available on COR2
A and none on LASCO C2 and C3. This CME is not directed towards Earth,
but might deliver a glancing blow on January 9.


An expected Coronal Hole high speed stream has arrived at L1. ACE solar
wind velocity has gradually increased from about 350 km/s towards a
plateau of about 450 km/s, while density and temperature peaked. The IMF
has remained moderate at about 10 nT. Geomagnetic conditions have been
quiet within the last 24 hours, and are expected to be predominantly at
active levels in the second half of January 6 and the first half of
January 7. Quiet conditions are likely in the second half of January 7
and on January 8.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 069, BASED ON 03 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 5 Jan 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 141
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 141
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 008
AK WINGST              : 005
ESTIMATED AP           : 005
ESTIMATED ISN          : 070, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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