:Issued: 2012 Mar 29 1151 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20329
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Mar 2012, 1134UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Mar 2012 until 31 Mar 2012)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Mar 2012  10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Mar 2012  10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Mar 2012  10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at eruptive levels during the past 24
hours, with a C1.4-flare having been produced by NOAA AR 11444 with
maximum at 21:58 UT on March 28, and a C7.7-flare having occurred in
NOAA AR 11429 with maximum at 09:53 UT on March 29. Solar activity is
expected to stay at eruptive levels, with risks of C flares from NOAA AR
11429, 11442, 11438 and 11448. An isolated M flare is possible,
especially from AR 11429 which is near the East limb.
After the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream on March 28,
solar wind velocity peaked at 12:57 UT with a value of 510 km/s, and has
since decreased to a plateau of 360 km/s. The IMF has been below 5 nT in
the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity has been quiet (Dourbes K ranged
from 0 to 3; NOAA Kp from 1 or 2) during the past 24 hours. The
geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on March 29 (K Dourbes < 4).
There is a chance for active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) on March 30, due
to the arrival of the halo CME from March 27 (03:12 UT). Quiet levels
are expected for March 31.



TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 073, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 28 Mar 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 120
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 107
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 012
AK WINGST              : 016
ESTIMATED AP           : 016
ESTIMATED ISN          : 060, BASED ON 30 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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