INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2021 May 25 12:30UTC

The Sun has produced only B flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C
flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 40%, while the chance for an M
flare is estimated at 5%, mainly from Beta-Gamma region NOAA 2824.

A CME towards the west was first observed at 17:47 UT on May 24 in LASCO
C2, after a data gap. Assuming region 2824 is the source region, this CME
is probably Earthbound, with an estimated speed of 500 km/s and arrival
time around 21h UT on May 28.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached a daily maximum just above the
1000 pfu threshold, and is expected to reach a similar daily maximum in the
next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence has reached moderate
levels during the past 24 hours, and is expected to return to normal levels
in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about
360 to 315 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF) was oriented towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between 1 and 4
nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase in the second half of May
25, with the arrival of several CMEs on May 25 and May 26.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 1; NOAA Kp between 0
and 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. Minor storm intervals (K
Dourbes = 5) are possible in the second half of May 25, on May 26 and on
May 27, with a chance for moderate geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 6), due
to the expected arrival of several CMEs.