FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) 2014 Sep 02
The strongest flare of the past 24 hours was the C2.6 flare peaking at
00:59 UT today in the Catania sunspot group 40 (NOAA AR 2152). This active
region is growing while maintaining the beta-gamma configuration of its
photospheric magnetic field.
Another active region will appear during
the next 24 hours from behind the east-south-east limb. It was the source
of several powerful behind-the-limb CMEs yesterday. The solar background
X-ray flux increased to above C1 level due to this active region. We expect
flaring activity up to the M-level, primarily from the east-south-east limb
and perhaps also from the Catania sunspot group 40.
The long filament
in the northern hemisphere is finishing its crossing of the solar central
meridian. It is rising slowly, so its eruption looks imminent now. The
resulting CME may be directed towards the Earth.
Two partial halo CMEs
were detected late yesterday evening. The first halo CME appeared at 21:36
UT in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view above the north-west limb, and had
angular width around 165 degrees. The position of the CME source region is
not entirely clear due to the data gap in the STEREO data, but the absence
of CME-associated signatures in the SDO/AIA data (in the north-west
quadrant around this time) indicates that the CME originated from the far
side of the Sun.
The second partial halo CME first appeared at 22:24
UT above the east limb and had angular width around 160 degrees. STEREO B
EUVI data indicate that it was associated with a flare (probably an M-class
flare) peaking at 22:15 UT in the active region just behind the
east-south-east limb (as seen from the Earth). No geomagnetic consequences
of these two CMEs are expected. However, the second partial halo CME
(perhaps together with yesterday's full halo CME) is most probably
associated with the slow rise of the proton flux measured by GOES and ACE
since late yesterday evening. We issue a warning condition for a proton
The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 410 km/s) solar
wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field
magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions.
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