FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) 2014 Oct 21
Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) continues to grow and maintains the
beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. It
produced four M-class flares in the past 24 hours, the strongest of them
being the M4.5 flare peaking at 16:37 UT. We expect flaring activity mostly
on the M-level in this group, with a good chance for an X-class flare. As
the Catania sunspot group 88 approaches the solar central meridian, a major
eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton
An active region at the north-east limb (no sunspots are still
visible) produced several flares including the C6.3 flare peaking at 10:58
UT today. It may produce an isolated M-class flare as well.
partial halo CME (angular width around 200 degrees) was first seen in the
SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 19:12 UT on October 20. The CME was very
weak and disappeared before reaching the LASCO C3 field of view, so we do
not expect it to arrive at the Earth. The source of the CME is the eruption
in the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) and in the region to the
south-west of it, starting around 18:40 UT, accompanied with coronal
dimmings and the M1.4 flare peaking at 19:02 UT.
The solar wind speed
is currently high (around 640 km/s) and the interplanetary magnetic filed
(IMF) magnitude is around 7 nT. Due to elevated values of the IMF magnitude
and predominantly southward IMF direction, the K index reached 5 during one
interval yesterday evening (according to Dourbes, IZMIRAN, and NOAA).
Currently the north-south IMF component Bz is fluctuating around zero, so
we expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K < 4) in the coming
hours, possibly with isolated
intervals of active conditions (K = 4).
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