SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2021 Jan 27 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 10127
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 27 Jan 2021, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 27 Jan 2021 until 29 Jan 2021)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Jan 2021  10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jan 2021  10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jan 2021  10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 003
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. There is
one numbered Active Region (AR) on the solar disk, NOAA AR 2797 (alpha),
which remained stable. NOAA AR 2799 (alpha) has now rotated over the west
solar limb. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a low
probability of a C-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the
available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux was enhanced but remained mostly just below the 1000
pfu threshold during past 24 hours, until 11:40 UT when it briefly crossed
the threshold. The electron flux is expected to remain enhanced and is
likely to cross this alert threshold again during the next 24 hours. The
24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at nominal
to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed remained elevated with values
ranging between 480 and 580 km/s (DSCOVR). The total magnetic field
strength fluctuated around 5 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -5 nT. The
interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly directed towards the Sun
(phi angle in the negative sector). Over the next 24 hours, the solar wind
speed is expected to gradually decrease as the influence from the high-
speed stream that is currently influencing the Earth continues to wane.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp and local
k Dourbes recorded values between 2-3 and 1-3, respectively.)  Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 24
hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 023, BASED ON 04 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 26 Jan 2021
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 076
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 018
AK WINGST              : ///
ESTIMATED AP           : 014
ESTIMATED ISN          : 016, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.