SIDC Ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | SIDC Ursigram |
| SIDC code | meu |
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:Issued: 2019 Feb 18 1230 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 90218 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Feb 2019, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Feb 2019 until 20 Feb 2019) SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Feb 2019 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Feb 2019 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 014 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Feb 2019 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 015 COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. The Sun was spotless. A 10-degrees long filament in a spotless active region (former sunspot group NOAA 2733) is currently located at N10E30. No coronal mass ejections were observed over the last 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal values. A diffuse and patchy positive polarity equatorial coronal hole (CH) finished its transit of the central meridian yesterday 17 February. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels. Solar wind parameters were indicative of a small disturbance starting on 17 February around 15 UT. Wind speed varied mostly between 340 and 370 km/s (DSCOVR). Bz ranged between -6 and +6 nT, with a 5-hour stretch of Bz values near -5 nT centered around 00UT. The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (phi angle) was variable. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue, until the arrival of the co-rotating interaction region and wind stream from the positive polarity coronal hole on 19 or 20 February. This may result in active conditions, with a small chance on an isolated minor storming episode. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 23 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Feb 2019 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 070 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 012 AK WINGST : 005 ESTIMATED AP : 004 ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 29 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.