SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2017 Mar 30 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 70330
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Mar 2017, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 30 Mar 2017 until 01 Apr 2017)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Mar 2017  10CM FLUX: 082 / AP: 029
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Mar 2017  10CM FLUX: 081 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Apr 2017  10CM FLUX: 081 / AP: 012
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. There have
been six B-flares flares originated at NOAA AR 2644 (McIntosh: Eso;
Mag.Type: Beta), AR 2645 (McIntosh: Dsi; Mag.Type: Beta) and AR 2646
(McIntosh: Axx; Mag.Type: Alpha). The biggest flare B6.5 peaked yesterday
(29-Mar-2017) at 23:32 UT originated at NOAA AR 2644. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been detected over the past 24 hours. Solar protons have remained
at background levels over the past 24 hours. No Earth directed Coronal Mass
Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar X-Ray background level is
expected to remain low. NOAA AR 2646 is about to rotate over the east limb.
NOAA AR 2645 and AR 2644 are expected to produce more B-class flares over
the next 24 hours. C-class flares are also not excluded.
Solar wind parameters indicate the influence of high speed stream (HSS)
from the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole that arrived at the Earth
27-Mar-2017. Total Interplanetary magnetic field remained stable varying
from 3 to 6 nT. The Bz component had two prolongated periods of negative
values varying from -6 nT to 5 nT over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
remained stable at high levels varying around 620 km/s. Solar wind speed is
expected to remain at high levels under CH HSS regime. WSA-Enlil model
simulations predict even more elevated solar wind speed  for the next two
days due to the global reconnection processes in near Earth space. The
geomagnetic field was from unsettled to active levels during the past 24
hours (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4) till 03:00 UT
this morning (30-Mar-2017), when NOAA Kp index reached minor storm levels
(Kp=5), at 06:00 UT Kp index returned to nominal value (Kp=3). The
geomagnetic field is expected to continue at active levels mostly for the
next two days with isolated episodes of minor storming (Kp=5) in response
to the agitated solar wind conditions.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 048, BASED ON 26 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 29 Mar 2017
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 071
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 083
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 031
AK WINGST              : 022
ESTIMATED AP           : 023
ESTIMATED ISN          : 048, BASED ON 31 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.