SIDC Ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | SIDC Ursigram |
| SIDC code | meu |
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:Issued: 2018 Dec 13 1230 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 81213 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 Dec 2018, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 13 Dec 2018 until 15 Dec 2018) SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Dec 2018 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 003 PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Dec 2018 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 004 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Dec 2018 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 004 COMMENT: The Sun is spotless and did not produce any flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at only 2%. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about 480 to 395 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly directed towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 0.5 and 4 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Quiet solar wind is expected in the next 48 hours. Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 13, 14 and 15. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 19 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 12 Dec 2018 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 000 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 071 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 007 AK WINGST : 006 ESTIMATED AP : 004 ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 18 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.