SIDC Ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | SIDC Ursigram |
| SIDC code | meu |
Archive
Latest issue
:Issued: 2018 Nov 12 1231 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 81112 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Nov 2018, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 12 Nov 2018 until 14 Nov 2018) SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Nov 2018 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 014 PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Nov 2018 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Nov 2018 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 007 COMMENT: Beta region NOAA 2726 has emerged on November 11 but is disintegrating fast. There were no flares on the visible solar disc of the Sun in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at only 2%. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The Earth is currently under the influence of a high speed stream associated with a negative equatorial coronal hole. Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 520 and 640 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 550 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly directed towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 0 and 7 nT. Bz was never below -6 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to decrease over the next days. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 5) are expected on November 12, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on November 13 and 14. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 014, BASED ON 07 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 11 Nov 2018 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 069 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 012 AK WINGST : 009 ESTIMATED AP : 008 ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 18 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.