SIDC Ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
Frequency | Daily |
Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
Mail header | SIDC Ursigram |
SIDC code | meu |
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Latest issue
:Issued: 2021 Jan 27 1230 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 10127 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 27 Jan 2021, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 27 Jan 2021 until 29 Jan 2021) SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Jan 2021 10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 006 PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jan 2021 10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 004 PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jan 2021 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 003 COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. There is one numbered Active Region (AR) on the solar disk, NOAA AR 2797 (alpha), which remained stable. NOAA AR 2799 (alpha) has now rotated over the west solar limb. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a low probability of a C-class flare. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was enhanced but remained mostly just below the 1000 pfu threshold during past 24 hours, until 11:40 UT when it briefly crossed the threshold. The electron flux is expected to remain enhanced and is likely to cross this alert threshold again during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at nominal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed remained elevated with values ranging between 480 and 580 km/s (DSCOVR). The total magnetic field strength fluctuated around 5 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly directed towards the Sun (phi angle in the negative sector). Over the next 24 hours, the solar wind speed is expected to gradually decrease as the influence from the high- speed stream that is currently influencing the Earth continues to wane. Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp and local k Dourbes recorded values between 2-3 and 1-3, respectively.) Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 023, BASED ON 04 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 26 Jan 2021 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 076 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 018 AK WINGST : /// ESTIMATED AP : 014 ESTIMATED ISN : 016, BASED ON 17 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.