SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue 

:Issued: 2018 Sep 23 1259 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 80923
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Sep 2018, 1259UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 23 Sep 2018 until 25 Sep 2018)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Sep 2018  10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 020
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Sep 2018  10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Sep 2018  10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 009
COMMENT: There are no numbered sunspot groups observed on the visible side
of the Sun, and there were no flares reported during last 24 hours. We
expect such a quiet flaring conditions to persist in the coming hours.
During last 24 hours we did not observe any signatures of the possibly
Earth directed CME and the solar protons remained at the background level.


The solar wind speed is presently about 450 km/s and the interplanetary
magnetic field is 9 nT.
This morning, at about 04:00 UT, the in situ observations showed change of
the phi angel followed by the increase of the interplanetary magnetic field
magnitude, solar wind speed and temperature. All this indicate possible
arrival of the fast solar wind associated with negative equatorial coronal
hole.
During last 24 hours, minor storm geomagnetic conditions were reported.
Local station at Dourbes reported intervals of K=5 lasting from about 21:00
UT until the midnight on September 22, while NOAA reported long interval of
Kp=4.
Presently geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled. In the coming
hours we might expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions (isolated
intervals of the minor storm conditions are also not excluded), due to the
possible arrival of the fast solar wind.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 22 Sep 2018
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 068
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 038
AK WINGST              : 029
ESTIMATED AP           : 031
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 25 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.