SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2018 Nov 12 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 81112
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Nov 2018, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 12 Nov 2018 until 14 Nov 2018)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Nov 2018  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Nov 2018  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Nov 2018  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Beta region NOAA 2726 has emerged on November 11 but is
disintegrating fast. There were no flares on the visible solar disc of the
Sun in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is
estimated at only 2%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The Earth is currently under the influence of a high speed stream
associated with a negative equatorial coronal hole. Solar wind speed near
Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 520 and 640 km/s in the
past 24 hours, with current values around 550 km/s. The Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly directed towards the Sun and its
magnitude varied between about 0 and 7 nT. Bz was never below -6 nT. Solar
wind speed is expected to decrease over the next days.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA
Kp between 1 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to active
geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 5) are expected on November 12, with a
slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on November 13 and 14.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 014, BASED ON 07 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 11 Nov 2018
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 069
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 012
AK WINGST              : 009
ESTIMATED AP           : 008
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #
# Website         http://www.sidc.be.                                #
# E-mail          sidc-support@oma.be                                #
# To unsubscribe  http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php          #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.