SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2020 Oct 19 1250 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 01019
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Oct 2020, 1249UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Oct 2020 until 21 Oct 2020)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Oct 2020  10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Oct 2020  10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Oct 2020  10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 016
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity is low. Presently there two active regions
observed on the visible side of the solar disc. Catania group 45 (NOAA AR
2776 - beta classification - SE) was the source of nine B and four A-class
flares in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 2777 (beta classification - SW) was
the source of three B and two A-class flares in the last 24 hours.  NOAA AR
2776 could be the source more low B-class flares and possibly, but not very
probably also isolated C-class flares in the coming hours.  NOAA AR 2777 is
about to rotate to none visible part of the solar disk.

The Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in the available coronagraphic
imagery are not expected to impact Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past
24 hours. It is expected to stay at background levels for the next 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels over the
past 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

The speed of the solar wind varied between 305 and 380 km/s (DSCOVR). The
polarity of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly
towards the Sun (phi angle in the negative sector) until late Oct 18th,
when it switched to the positive sector. Bz fluctuated between -5 and +6
nT. The magnitude of the magnetic field varied between 2 and 7 nT. Over the
next 24 hours, the solar wind parameters are expected to be remain at about
these levels.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled. The values registered
for the past 24 hours were 0-3 for K Dourbes and 0-2 for NOAA Kp. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 014, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 18 Oct 2020
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 076
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 005
AK WINGST              : 002
ESTIMATED AP           : 002
ESTIMATED ISN          : 018, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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