SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue 

:Issued: 2021 Feb 27 1244 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 10227
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 27 Feb 2021, 1243UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 27 Feb 2021 until 01 Mar 2021)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Feb 2021  10CM FLUX: 080 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Feb 2021  10CM FLUX: 080 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Mar 2021  10CM FLUX: 080 / AP: 011
COMMENT: The solar activity has been mostly quiet over the past 24 hours.
Regions Catania 74/NOAA AR 2804 had a low flaring activity while Catania
75/NOAA 12805 is currently a plage.  The solar flaring activity is expected
to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours.

A Coronal Mass Ejection recorded by LASCO on Feb 26 07:48UT, associated
with the B9.5 flare on Feb 26 07:02UT is not expected to be Earth directed.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. Over the past 24
hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux crossed the 1000 pfu threshold
until Feb 26 2:10UT. It is expected to remain at about threshold levels for
the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at moderate
levels in the past 24 hours. It is expect to remain so for the next 24
hours. With no space weather effects expected until about Feb 29 they are
expected to follow a decreasing trend.

The past 24 hours the solar wind speed ranged between 385 km/s and 465
km/s. The total magnetic field values were between 0 nT and 6 nT. The Bz
component fluctuated between -6 nT and 5 nT. The orientation of the
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied. Over the next 24 hours the
solar wind parameters are expected to continue in this decreasing trend.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled.
They are expected to return to remain at quiet levels for the next 24
hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 016, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 26 Feb 2021
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 021
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 080
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 015
AK WINGST              : ///
ESTIMATED AP           : 013
ESTIMATED ISN          : 017, BASED ON 31 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.