SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue 

:Issued: 2020 Feb 28 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 00228
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Feb 2020, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 28 Feb 2020 until 01 Mar 2020)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Feb 2020  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Feb 2020  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Mar 2020  10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. The Sun is still spotless.
A small active region close to the east limb at latitude S10 seems
spotless, whereas another small region at latitude N25 is still at the east
limb as seen in SDO/AIA imagery. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) have been observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal values. A small and irregularly
shaped equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH) is present on the
solar disk.

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

Solar wind conditions were at background levels. Solar wind speed declined
from about 380 km/s at the beginning of the period to 330 km/s by 06:30UT,
then increasing again to its current value around 350 km/s(ACE). Bz
undulated between -4 and +4 nT. The direction of the interplanetary
magnetic field (phi angle) was mainly towards the Sun until around 06:30UT,
when it switched towards predominantly a positive sector (away from the
Sun). Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels, with an unsettled
episode (09-12UT) recorded at Dourbes.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels, with an
isolated unsettled interval remaining possible. Late on 29 February or
during 01 March, geomagnetic conditions may become unsettled with a chance
on an active episode following the expected arrival of a wind stream
associated with the negative polarity CH.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 27 Feb 2020
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 000
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 071
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 008
AK WINGST              : 003
ESTIMATED AP           : 002
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.