SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2020 Jan 29 1239 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 00129
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Jan 2020, 1238UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Jan 2020 until 31 Jan 2020)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jan 2020  10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jan 2020  10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Jan 2020  10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 004
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels with no significant
solar flares observed. Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA Active Region 2757,
N04W33) remained inactive and has decayed to Hale class alpha in the past
24 hours. The solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels in
the next 24 hours. Quiet flaring conditions are expected for the next
24-hour period with no significant flares expected from the decaying
sunspot region NOAA 2757 in the north-western quadrant, nor from the plague
region in the eastern hemisphere.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the
available coronagraph imagery.
The greater than 10 MeV solar proton flux was at nominal levels and is
expected to remain so.

The solar wind speed over the past 24 hours has increased from 300 to
around 500 km/s (ACE) probably due to the influence of the patchy negative
polarity coronal hole observed on Jan 25. The total interplanetary magnetic
field reached values of 8 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum of -8 nT
between 21 UTC on Jan 28th and 02 UTC on Jan 29th. The polarity of the
interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly in the negative sector with
short positive intervals.

The geomagnetic activity over the past 24 hours has been quiet until 21 UTC
when several unsettled periods occurred, due to the arrival of the high
speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole, when both local K
(Dourbes) and NOAA Kp indexes reached a value of 3. Throughout the next 24
hours the geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain predominantly quiet
with isolated unsettled periods due to the remaining influence of the
observed high speed stream. The CME observed by STEREO-A on Jan 25th with
estimated arrival on Jan 30th might contribute to the periods with
unsettled geomagnetic conditions predicted for that day.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 012, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 28 Jan 2020
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 074
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 017
AK WINGST              : 006
ESTIMATED AP           : 005
ESTIMATED ISN          : 013, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.