SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2020 May 30 1243 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 00530
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 May 2020, 1243UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 30 May 2020 until 01 Jun 2020)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 May 2020  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 May 2020  10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Jun 2020  10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 007
COMMENT: The not-numbered active region which was the source of 12 B-class,
2 C-class flares and 1 M-class flare, during last 36 hours seems to
decrease its flaring activity. This active region just rotated to the
visible side of the Sun, and it is presently situated close to the North-
East solar limb. We can still expect some B-class, C-class and possibly
also isolated M-class flares in the coming hours.
During last 24 hours there were no Earth directed CMEs and the solar
protons remained at the background level.

At about 19:20 UT on May 29, the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude
started to slowly increase simultaneously with the solar wind speed,
temperature and density. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude
reached maximum value of about 14 nT (at about 05:15 UT this morning), and
its Bz component had simultaneously the minimum value of -12 nT.
It is presently not completely clear if this is arrival of the faint CME or
the corotating interaction region. However the sudden change of the phi
angle (sector boundary) to negative value indicates that observed structure
is the compression region in front of the fast solar wind originating from
the negative polarity coronal hole.
The arrival of this structure induced the unsettled geomagnetic conditions
(Dourbes reported longer interval of K=3 and NOAA reported Kp=3). We expect
unsettled to possibly active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 25 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 29 May 2020
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 070
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 012
AK WINGST              : 004
ESTIMATED AP           : 003
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 42 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #
# Website         http://www.sidc.be.                                #
# E-mail          sidc-support@oma.be                                #
# To unsubscribe  http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php          #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.