Monthly Ri Report

:Issued: 2019 Feb 01 09:55 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/ri 
#-------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY TABLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL TOTAL SUNSPOT NUMBER     #
# AND 12-MONTH PREDICTIONS from the World Data Center SILSO   #
#-------------------------------------------------------------#

Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
January 2019 : 7.8 (seven point eight)

Maximum : 26 on 26 // Minimum : 0 on 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15,
16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 31

Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for January 2019 : 

      1.. 13    6..  0   11..  0   16..  0   21.. 10   26.. 26   31..  0
      2.. 15    7..  0   12..  0   17..  0   22.. 16   27.. 19
      3.. 16    8..  0   13..  0   18..  0   23.. 19   28.. 16
      4.. 13    9..  0   14..  0   19..  0   24.. 21   29.. 13
      5.. 12   10..  0   15..  0   20..  0   25.. 23   30.. 11

65 cooperating stations on February 1, 10 UT

Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for July 2018 :   7.1 (+-5%)

            SM    CM                 SM    CM                 SM    CM     

2018 Aug     7     5     2019 Feb     3     4     2019 Aug     1    15
     Sep     7     3          Mar     2     5          Sep     0    18
     Oct     5     3          Apr     2     7          Oct     0    21
     Nov     4     4          May     1     9          Nov     1    25
     Dec     4     4          Jun     1    11          Dec     1    28
2019 Jan     3     4          Jul     1    13     2020 Jan     2    33

SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103



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