SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue

:Issued: 2018 Jun 20 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 80620
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Jun 2018, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Jun 2018 until 22 Jun 2018)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jun 2018  10CM FLUX: 078 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jun 2018  10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jun 2018  10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 005
COMMENT: The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours with
X-ray flux remaining below C level. Catania sunspot group 86 and 87 (NOAA
active region 2713 and 2714) remained stable and produced only small
B-class flares. A new sunspot (Catania sunspot group 88, NOAA active region
2715) has recently emerged and produced only a small B-class flare. Flaring
conditions are expected to remain quiet for the next 24-hour period with a
small chance of C-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The greater than
10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so.

The Earth remained under the influence of the solar wind associated with
the coronal hole, which passed the central meridian on Jun 15. The wind
speed values fluctuated between 480 to 520 km/s, and is currently
decreasing to reach 428 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field is at its
nominal condition with the total magnetic field strength below 5 nT and the
southward component fluctuating between -3.5 and +4.5 nT. Solar wind
conditions are expected to return to the slow regime within the next two
days. A north pole coronal hole of positive polarity and extending to
latitude 25 deg. is currently passing through the central meridian. The
associated fast solar wind would reach Earth on the 23rd of June.

Geomagnetic conditions have been mostly quiet over the past 24 hours. The
Kp index (NOAA) ranged between 1-2 and local K index 0-3 (Dourbes). The
geomagnetic conditions are expected to remained quiet for the next period.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 055, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Jun 2018
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 042
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 077
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 008
AK WINGST              : ///
ESTIMATED AP           : 008
ESTIMATED ISN          : 035, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

UMAGF 30503 80620 1004/ 19068 1/008 22211 31111
BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.