SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue

:Issued: 2019 Feb 18 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 90218
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Feb 2019, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Feb 2019 until 20 Feb 2019)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Feb 2019  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Feb 2019  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Feb 2019  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 015
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. The Sun was spotless. A
10-degrees long filament in a spotless active region (former sunspot group
NOAA 2733) is currently located at N10E30. No coronal mass ejections were
observed over the last 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
nominal values. A diffuse and patchy positive polarity equatorial coronal
hole (CH) finished its transit of the central meridian yesterday 17
February.

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

Solar wind parameters were indicative of a small disturbance starting on 17
February around 15 UT. Wind speed varied mostly between 340 and 370 km/s
(DSCOVR). Bz ranged between -6 and +6 nT, with a 5-hour stretch of Bz
values near -5 nT centered around 00UT. The direction of the interplanetary
magnetic field (phi angle) was variable. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions were observed.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue, until
the arrival of the co-rotating interaction region and wind stream from the
positive polarity coronal hole on 19 or 20 February. This may result in
active conditions, with a small chance on an isolated minor storming
episode.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Feb 2019
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 070
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 012
AK WINGST              : 005
ESTIMATED AP           : 004
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 29 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

UMAGF 30503 90218 1004/ 17064 1/012 21100 32332
UMAGF 31523 90218 0000/ 17004 1/005 21011 30033
BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.