SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue

:Issued: 2018 Sep 22 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 80922
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Sep 2018, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Sep 2018 until 24 Sep 2018)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Sep 2018  10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Sep 2018  10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Sep 2018  10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 008
COMMENT: There are presently no sunspot groups observed on the visible side
of the Sun. Accordingly, no flares were reported during last 24 hours and
we expect such a quiet conditions to persist in the coming hours.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed, and the solar protons remained at the
background level.

The in situ observations indicate arrival of the fast solar wind associated
with the low latitudinal extent of the northern polar coronal hole. The
interplanetary magnetic field magnitude started to increased simultaneously
with the density increase and the change of the phi angle in the late
evening of the September 21. After about 23:00 UT on September 21, density
decreased and solar wind speed started to increase simultaneously with the
increase of the temperature.
The solar wind speed is presently about 470 km/s and the interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude is about 10 nT.
The arrival of one more fast flow, associated with patchy equatorial
coronal hole which reached central meridian on September 18, is expected
this evening.
The arrival of the fast solar wind induced disturbed geomagnetic conditions
yesterday evening and this morning. Local station at Dourbes reported
intervals of K=4 at about 03:00 UT this morning, while NOAA reported two
intervals of  Kp=5 starting from about 21:00 UT yesterday up to 03:00 UT
this morning. Presently geomagnetic conditions are unsettled to active and
we expect such a disturbed geomagnetic conditions to remain the coming
hours. We might expect also isolated intervals of minor storm conditions
starting from late this evening due to arrival of the fast flow associated
with the equatorial coronal hole.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Sep 2018
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 000
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 067
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 028
AK WINGST              : 009
ESTIMATED AP           : 011
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 32 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

UMAGF 30503 80922 1004/ 21066 1/028 20111 32544
UMAGF 31523 80922 0000/ 21002 1/009 20111 31225
BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.