SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue

:Issued: 2020 Jul 10 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 00710
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 10 Jul 2020, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 10 Jul 2020 until 12 Jul 2020)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jul 2020  10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jul 2020  10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jul 2020  10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 008
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels and is expected to remain
so. SDO/HMI's latest white light images indicate some small spots are
developing in old active region NOAA 2766, located near N05W60.

The significant coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the filament
eruption near the NW solar limb early on 09 July does not seem to have an
earth-directed component. The faint and slow-moving (250 km/s) CME
associated with a long-lasting filament eruption in the SW solar quadrant
was barely visible in SOHO's coronagraphic imagery. In view of its width
(about 110 degrees in LASCO/C2 at 09/13:25UT July) and the source location
near S30W15, there's a small chance on a glancing blow from this CME late
on 13 but more likely on 14 July. No other earth-directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux and the greater than 2 MeV electron
flux were at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and are expected to
remain so.

Solar wind speed varied between 300 and 340 km/s, ending the period near
330 km/s (DSCOVR). Bz varied between -4 and +4 nT, with a negative stretch
from 04-09UT. The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (phi
angle) was mostly directed away from the Sun (positive sector).

Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels, with an unsettled interval
(06-09UT) recorded by Dourbes. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
mostly quiet on 10-11 July. Unsettled intervals are possible on 12-13 July
from coronal hole wind stream effects, and on 14 July from a glancing blow
from the 09 July CME. An isolated active interval is not excluded.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 002, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 09 Jul 2020
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 000
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 069
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 006
AK WINGST              : 004
ESTIMATED AP           : 003
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

UMAGF 30503 00710 1004/ 09063 1/006 21112 31001
UMAGF 31523 00710 0000/ 09004 1/004 21111 32220
BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.