GEOALERT SIDC
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | GEOALERT SIDC |
| SIDC code | xut |
Latest issue
:Issued: 2024 Apr 24 1304 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# GEOALERT BRU115 UGEOA 30512 40424 1304/ 9930/ 12242 20242 30242 99999 PLAIN PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Apr 2024 10CM FLUX: 220 / AP: 003 PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Apr 2024 10CM FLUX: 220 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Apr 2024 10CM FLUX: 220 / AP: 015 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels in the past 24 hours with multiple M-class flares. There are 15 numbered and several unnumbered active regions on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR 3645 (beta-gamma) remains the largest region, followed by NOAA AR 3646 (beta-gamma), NOAA AR 3647 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3639 (beta-gamma). The strongest activity was M2.9 flare, start time 17:33 UTC, end time 17:52 UTC, peak time 17:44 UTC on April 23rd produced by NOAA AR 3638 (beta). Other regions which contributed to the low M-class flaring observed are NOAA AR 3645 and NOAA AR 3647. NOAA AR 3546 and NOAA AR 3654 (beta) contributed to the high C-class flaring. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next days with likely further M-class flaring and 20% chance for isolated X-class flaring. Coronal mass ejections: Further analysis of the multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by LASCO/C2 during the UTC night of April 23rd suggests no expected impact on Earth. A slow partial halo CME is visible in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery starting at 18:00 UTC on April 23rd. The CME is propagating to the south-west and has an estimated projected velocity around 400 km/s. The eruption appears related to the M2.9 flare, peak time 17:44 UTC on April 23rd, produced by NOAA AR 3638. An associated type II radio emission was observed starting at 17:10 UTC on April 23rd with estimated velocity of 358 km/s. Analysis of this event suggests no to possibly very low impact on Earth late on April 27th. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. Coronal holes: A small positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole is currently residing on the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. The high speed stream emanating from it might arrive to Earth on April 27th- April 28th. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind regime. The solar wind velocity was mostly in the range between 350 km/s to 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was unremarkable with a maximum value of 6.4 nT and a minimum Bz of -5.7 nT. Around 06:00 UTC on April 24th the B field phi angle switched from the negative to the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at these levels on April 24th with possible mild enhancements on April 25th - April 26th and further on April 27th-April 28th should any of the expected high speed streams arrive to Earth. Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected throughout April 24th. Quiet to active conditions with chances for isolated minor storms are anticipated for late April 25th-April 28th. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days, pending any fast eruptive solar activity. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux as measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24h. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 exceeded the1000 pfu threshold in the late UTC afternoon on April 23rd and is expected to repeat this pattern on April 24th. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 258, BASED ON 16 STATIONS. 99999 UGEOI 30512 40424 1304/ 23/// 10308 22191 3007/ 4//// 80917 91430 99999 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 23 1733 1744 1752 S08W59 M2.9 SF 60/3645 III/3II/2 24 0013 0029 0038 S11W63 M1.7 SF 59/3638 24 0230 0239 0244 ////// M1.8 59/3638 V/2 END UGEOR 30512 40424 1304/ ///// ///// 99999 USSPS 31405 23070 30832 59002 35518 01208 60028 35007 24414 61008 44528 24507 62028 34313 35422 63003 41811 21303 64017 40322 25422 65004 40414 2/802 66002 42018 01207 68002 47015 11305 69014 32512 01215 70001 33315 01203 71002 31723 11302 72011 11415 24408 73001 22713 01203 74010 24407 24409 75008 24727 24404 76002 25813 11304 USSPS 21305 22154 34232 43004 45517 31306 35017 44029 24510 40015 10222 34417 49006 40212 3/802 39007 10415 31305 48014 12215 54414 50001 15203 0/101 41043 33808 54526 34006 34116 04217 44037 33413 34540 38001 32513 0/107 46006 31411 14413 54001 23711 01203 52006 25409 34310 53004 26612 31304 51016 25627 21407 USSPS 81202 23008 28832 21003 46117 21303 20025 34408 57417 12002 34716 01210 22019 34013 37421 15001 33113 01205 23011 32011 34311 17016 43629 34512 31002 41618 01205 19017 40322 34419 18008 40115 31406 25011 11715 31406 26001 23111 01202 28009 24809 34413 29008 25027 31405 30002 26012 11303 USSPS 32404 22070 20212 25002 34417 01206 27008 43129 31509 28001 31813 21304 30002 10514 31403 31010 33807 31508 32004 10922 21308 33007 33311 27415 36003 31309 21405 38002 12815 21405 39000 24112 01202 41002 45417 21302 42002 25926 21304 43002 25509 2/801 UMAGF 30503 40424 1004/ 23063 1/011 21211 33211 UMAGF 31523 40424 0000/ 23002 1/007 21122 32232 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The Geoalert message starts with the code GEOALERT BRUXXX, where xxx is the day-of-the-year number.Besides the ISES codes like UGEOA, UGEOI, UGEOR and USSPS, this message contains the following information:
PLAIN
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
99999
This gives the predicted 10.7 cm radioflux and the predicted Ap index for 3 days starting on the date of the message
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
This is the header of a table that lists all major events.
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.