INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2021 Oct 16 12:30UTC

Region NOAA 2885 produced a B9.7 flare peaking at 15:16 UT on October 15.
The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 50%,
especially from region 2885.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

DSCOVR registered a fast forward shock in the solar wind at 00:12 UT on
October 16. The solar wind speed jumped from about 300 to 345 km/s, while
the magnitude of the Interplanetary Field (IMF) jumped from about 6 to 8 nT
and the density jumped from about 4.5 to 6.5 counts/cc. The IMF orientation
stayed predominantly towards the Sun. This probably corresponds to the
Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) in front of the high speed stream from
a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole. Current solar wind speed
values are near 400 km/s, and current values for the magnitude of the IMF
are about 9 nT. There were no extended time intervals in which Bz was below
-5 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected on October 16, with a
gradual return to nominal levels on October 17 and the first half of
October 18. In the second half of October 18, a high speed stream from a
positive polarity coronal hole is expected to arrive near Earth, which will
likely lead to enhanced solar wind levels.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA
Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. On October 16,
active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible, with a slight chance for
minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
levels are expected on October 17 and the first half of October 18. In the
second half of October 18, active intervals are possible due to the
expected arrival of a high speed stream from a positive polarity coronal
hole, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals.