SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2017 Oct 21 1237 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 71021
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Oct 2017, 1236UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Oct 2017 until 23 Oct 2017)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Oct 2017  10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Oct 2017  10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Oct 2017  10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 007
COMMENT: From the East limb, returning NOAA region 2682 produced a long
duration M1.1 flare peaking at 23:28 UT on October 20. An associated
dimming was detected by Solar Demon, and an associated Type II radio burst
was observed by Palehua at 23:35 UT with a corresponding speed of 344 km/s.
SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 and STEREO COR2 A have observed an associated bright
CME, first seen in LASCO C2 at 00:00 UT on October 21, from the northeast
to the southeast. Analysis of COR2 A jplots revealed a plane of sky speed
of about 385 km/s, yielding a full speed of 770 km/s. Due to the position
of the source, this CME will not be geoeffective. C flares are likely in
the next 24 hours (70% probability), with a chance for an M flare (30%
probability). No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed
in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
at nominal levels.
A small, fast forward shock in the solar wind occurred at 5:16 UT on
October 21. Solar wind speed registered by DSCOVR jumped from about 340 to
365 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
jumped from about 4 to 6 nT. Current solar wind speed is about 360 km/s and
current IMF magnitude is about 8.5 nT. The IMF was directed away from the
Sun until it started pointing towards the Sun around 7:40 UT on October 21.
Quiet to unsettled conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1
and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. There is a chance for active
geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 4) on October 21. Quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 22 and 23.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 011, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Oct 2017
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 000
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 076
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 012
AK WINGST              : 010
ESTIMATED AP           : 010
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 26 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
20  2310  2328 2337 ////// M1.1          ///////      II/1 
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.