SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2014 Nov 23 1245 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41123
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Nov 2014, 1211UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 23 Nov 2014 until 25 Nov 2014)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Nov 2014  10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Nov 2014  10CM FLUX: 173 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Nov 2014  10CM FLUX: 178 / AP: 012
COMMENT: NOAA ARs 2209 and 2216 (Catania numbers 9 and 14 respectively)
have delta-spots in their trailing parts and continue to produce C-class
flares. However, the strongest flare of the past 24 hours was the C3.5
flare peaking at 10:53 UT today in the still unnumbered sunspot group that
appeared from behind the east solar limb yesterday evening. We expect
flaring activity on the C-level, possibly with an isolated M-class flare. A
long filament in the northern hemisphere has finished crossing the solar
central meridian, but its eruption may still lead to an Earth-directed CME.
The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 400 km/s) solar wind flow with
slightly elevated (7-8 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. Due to
low solar wind speed, the geomagnetic conditions remained mostly at the
quiet to unsettled level (K < 4), only with one interval of active
conditions (K = 4) reported by IZMIRAN and NOAA yesterday evening. The
geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay at the quiet to unsettled
levels (K < 4), with isolated intervals of active conditions (K = 4).
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 062, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 22 Nov 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 167
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 016
AK WINGST              : 010
ESTIMATED AP           : 010
ESTIMATED ISN          : 060, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.