SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2014 Aug 01 1232 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40801
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Aug 2014, 1208UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 01 Aug 2014 until 03 Aug 2014)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Aug 2014  10CM FLUX: 163 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Aug 2014  10CM FLUX: 167 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Aug 2014  10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 006
COMMENT: There are currently 9 sunspot groups visible. Fast growing NOAA
2132 produced the strongest event of the period: a C8 flare peaking at
00:18UT. Together with NOAA 2130, which produced only low-level C-class
flares, they are magnetically the most complex active regions on the solar
disk. NOAA 2127 simplified, and remained quiet. A small filament on the
northern hemisphere near the central meridian (CM) erupted. Evaluation of
any associated CME is pending the availability of coronagraphic images. The
other filaments have been stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed over
the last 24 hours.    There remains a chance for an M-class flare, in
particular from NOAA 2130 and 2132.     In response to the sector boundary
crossing from 31 July around 11:00UT (ACE), solar wind speed gradually
increased from 300 to 350 km/s, with Bz varying between -8 and +10 nT.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet, with locally some unsettled periods
towards the end of the reporting window. A small equatorial coronal hole is
transiting the CM and may influence the geomagnetic field on 4 August.
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected until the possible glancing blow
from the 30 July CME, which may locally lead to active geomagnetic
conditions on 2 August.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 125, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 31 Jul 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 156
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 009
AK WINGST              : 008
ESTIMATED AP           : 005
ESTIMATED ISN          : ///, BASED ON /// STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
31  1101  1114 1121 ////// M2.5          35/2130      
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.