SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2014 Jul 24 1228 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40724
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 24 Jul 2014, 1207UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 24 Jul 2014 until 26 Jul 2014)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jul 2014  10CM FLUX: 109 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Jul 2014  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Jul 2014  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar activity has been mainly quiet with the background X-ray
flux remaining between the B2 and B3 level. Catania sunspot group 22 (NOAA
AR 2121) however did produce a C2.1 flare peaking at 1:51 UT. A chance for
a further occasional C-flare from AR 2121 remains and also the probability
for C-flares from Catania group 24 (NOAA AR 2123) has increased. With a
reasonable full disc chance for C flares the all quiet alert status is
therefore lifted, though at most an occasional low C level flare is likely.
No significant Earth directed CME's were observed.   A transequatorial
coronal hole crossed the central meridian around UT midnight July 23 to 24.
It is likely to influence the solar wind conditions near Earth starting
late July 26, early July 27. Solar wind speed was first stable in the
beginning of the reporting period around 320 km/s and later picked up to
enhanced values of around 380 km/s presently. The total magnetic field also
increased from being stable between 3-4nT just before the reporting period
to fluctuating between 2nT and 7nT during the past 24 hours with Bz
variable between +-5nT. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet (NOAA Kp =
1-2 and local K Dourbes = 0-2) with a 6 hour period of unsettled conditions
before UT midnight (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes = 3).  Slightly
enhanced solar wind conditions and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions are expected to continue under the influence of a coronal hole
stream.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 048, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 23 Jul 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 079
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 099
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 012
AK WINGST              : 006
ESTIMATED AP           : 006
ESTIMATED ISN          : 048, BASED ON 27 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.