SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2016 Feb 12 1238 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60212
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Feb 2016, 1237UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 12 Feb 2016 until 14 Feb 2016)
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Feb 2016  10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Feb 2016  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Feb 2016  10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 009
COMMENT: NOAA AR 2497 has increased its magnetic complexity and now has
beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. It
produced 3 C-class flares and an M-class flare in the past 24 hours (two
more C-class flares were produced by the NOAA AR 2492). We expect the
flaring activity on the M-level from the NOAA AR 2497. The M1.0 flare
peaking at 10:47 today was not accompanied by a CME. The C8.9 flare peaking
at 21:03 UT on February 11 in the NOAA AR 2497 was accompanied by coronal
dimmings, an EIT wave, and a post-eruption arcade observed by SDO/AIA. The
associated halo CME (angular width around 270 degrees) first appeared in
the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 21:28 UT. Due to the position of the CME
source region close to the solar disk center, the CME will most probably
arrive at the Earth. The arrival may be expected late on February 14 -
early on February 15. A minor to moderate geomagnetic storm (K around 5 to
6) may be expected.
The Earth is currently inside an ICME, probably associated with a delayed
arrival of the CME observed on the Sun late on February 5 (the solar wind
speed is currently rather low, around 350 km/s). The interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is currently around 14 nT. The IMF north-
south component Bz had extended southward intervals, but due to low solar
wind speed only active geomagnetic conditions (K = 4) were reported by
Dourbes, IZMIRAN, and NOAA. We expect unsettled to active geomagnetic
conditions in the coming hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 071, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 11 Feb 2016
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 113
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 020
AK WINGST              : 010
ESTIMATED AP           : 011
ESTIMATED ISN          : 086, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
12  1036  1047 1053 ////// M1.0          ///2497      
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.