SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2014 Dec 17 1232 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41217
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Dec 2014, 1212UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 Dec 2014 until 19 Dec 2014)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase,
but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Dec 2014  10CM FLUX: 185 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Dec 2014  10CM FLUX: 185 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Dec 2014  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 010
COMMENT: The Sun released three M flares and four C flares during the past
24 hours. An M8.7 flare was released by NOAA AR 2242 on December 17 with
peak time 04:51 UT. It was preceded by an M1.5 flare produced by AR 2242
peaking at 1:10 UT and an M1.1 flare produced by AR 2241 peaking at 1:50
UT. An associated Type II radio burst was observed by Learmonth observatory
between 4:49 and 5:15 UT with an estimated speed of 910 km/s. After a data
gap, LASCO C3 imagery showed a CME first detected at 9:18 UT on November 17
and probably associated to the M8.7 flare. Since AR 2242 is close to the
central meridian, this CME is expected to become geoeffective. Using a
speed of 910 km/s as estimated by the Type II radio burst, a tentative
arrival time around UT midnight on December 19-20 is obtained. M and even X
flaring from AR 2242 and AR 2241 are possible in the next 24 hours. There
is a chance for proton storms in the days ahead. In the past 24 hours,
solar wind speed observed by ACE fluctuated between about 370 and 470 km/s.
The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was stable and
mainly between 5 and 6 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions
were quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 2 and 3). Quiet
geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 17, 18 and the
first half of December 19. Active to minor storm conditions are possible in
the second half of December 19 in view of the expected CME arrival.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 137, BASED ON 07 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 16 Dec 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 185
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 016
AK WINGST              : 008
ESTIMATED AP           : 008
ESTIMATED ISN          : 124, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
17  0057  0110 0120 S25E10 M1.5 1N       ///2242      
17  0141  0150 0157 S11E33 M1.1 SN       ///2241      VI/1 
17  0425  0451 0520 S11E33 M8.7 SF       ///2242      II/2IV/1III/2 
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.