SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2017 Dec 13 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 71213
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 Dec 2017, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 13 Dec 2017 until 15 Dec 2017)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Dec 2017  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Dec 2017  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Dec 2017  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 014
COMMENT: The Sun did not produce any flares in the past 24 hours. The
chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. No Earth-
directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels.

In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR varied between
about 440 and 540 km/s, with current values around 475 km/s. The magnitude
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 1 and 9 nT. Bz
was around -5 nT between 15:45 and 17:15 UT on December 12. A high speed
stream from a recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole is expected to
arrive in the second half of December 15 or early on December 16. Quiet to
active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1
and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. The active interval (K Dourbes
= 4) between 18h and 21h UT on December 12 was related to Bz values around
-5 nT. Quiet to active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 5) are possible on
December 13 and 14 and the first half of December 15, with a chance for
minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to minor storm conditions (K
Dourbes < 6) are expected in the second half of December 15, with a chance
for moderate geomagnetic storm intervals (K Dourbes = 6), due to the
expected arrival of a high speed stream from a recurrent positive
equatorial coronal hole.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 12 Dec 2017
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 014
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 071
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 018
AK WINGST              : 017
ESTIMATED AP           : 016
ESTIMATED ISN          : 013, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.