SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2016 Aug 24 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60824
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 24 Aug 2016, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 24 Aug 2016 until 26 Aug 2016)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Aug 2016  10CM FLUX: 081 / AP: 020
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Aug 2016  10CM FLUX: 081 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Aug 2016  10CM FLUX: 081 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low. The previously growing region
2579 stabilized and became inactive. The only flare of the period was a
B2.5 flare peaking at 8:56UT from region 2580.
Solar X-ray flux is expected to remain below C level.
Solar proton fluxes are at background levels and expected to remain so.
No Earth directed CME's have been observed in coronagraph data.

In the first half of the reporting period solar wind showed a further
increase in total magnetic field to over 13nT and an extended period of
pronounced negative values of the southward magnetic field down to -13nT.
In addition also solar wind speed increased steadily to over 600 km/s with
peaks up to 700 km/s marking the expected arrival of the coronal hole high
speed stream. Meanwhile, total magnetic field has declined to nominal
values with Bz becoming variable while the solar wind speed remains
elevated in the 500-600 km/s range.
Over the next 24-48 hours we should see the decline of solar wind speed to
nominal values.

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (K Dourbes 5 for only an
isolated period, while NOAA Kp=5 for three consecutive periods) around
midnight, following the prolonged duration of pronounced negative Bz
combined with the increase in solar wind speed. Over the morning,
geomagnetic conditions have recovered to quiet to unsettled as magnetic
field values decreased.
As solar wind speed remains enhanced isolated periods of active conditions
remain possible.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 050, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 23 Aug 2016
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 081
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 041
AK WINGST              : 021
ESTIMATED AP           : 020
ESTIMATED ISN          : 046, BASED ON 36 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.