SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2014 Oct 23 1257 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41023
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Oct 2014, 1210UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 23 Oct 2014 until 25 Oct 2014)
SOLAR FLARES  : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability
>=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase,
but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Oct 2014  10CM FLUX: 221 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Oct 2014  10CM FLUX: 226 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Oct 2014  10CM FLUX: 231 / AP: 011
COMMENT: During the past 24 hours, Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192)
produced an X1.6 flare (peaking yesterday at 14:28 UT) and an M1.1 flare
(peaking today at 09:50 UT). These flares were not associated with CMEs.
Catania sunspot group 93 (NOAA AR 2195) close to the east solar limb
produced an M1.4 flare peaking at 15:57 UT, and this flare was associated
only with a narrow CME. Catania sunspot group 88 will remain the main flare
source as it continues to grow (this is the largest sunspot group during
the two solar cycles) and maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of
its photospheric magnetic field. Although the sunspots of the main magnetic
polarities are somewhat separating, we still expect the flaring activity up
to X-level from this sunspot group. As the Catania sunspot group 88 is
currently situated at the solar central meridian, a major eruption in this
active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton event.   The
Earth is currently inside a slow (around 430 km/s) solar wind flow with
average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude. The
geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so. Yesterday
an interval of K = 5 was reported by IZMIRAN and an interval of K = 4 by
Dourbes (K index according to NOAA remained at the quiet to unsettled
levels with K < 4). This interval of slightly disturbed geomagnetic
conditions was produced by a slow solar wind interval with predominantly
negative north-south IMF component Bz.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 091, BASED ON 05 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 22 Oct 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 202
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 216
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : ///
AK WINGST              : ///
ESTIMATED AP           : 017
ESTIMATED ISN          : 098, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
22  1402  1428 1450 S14E13 X1.6 2B  200  88/2192      
22  1551  1557 1603 ////// M1.4          ///////      II/1 
23  0944  0950 0956 S16E03 M1.1 1F       88/2192      
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.