SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2014 Aug 20 0945 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40820
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Aug 2014, 0908UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Aug 2014 until 22 Aug 2014)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Aug 2014  10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Aug 2014  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Aug 2014  10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 004
COMMENT: There are 6 active regions on the visible side of the solar disk.
Only NOAA AR 12146 (in NE quadrant) has shown a significant growth in the
past 24 hours. We expect it will push up solar activity to C-class flaring
levels, though further growth in size, complexity and thus flaring levels
cannot be excluded. Note also that flaring activity is observed from behind
the NE solar limb. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected in the coming
3 days: there are no high speed wind streams expected from coronal holes,
nor are there any new CMEs on the way to the Earth. The arrival yesterday
(Aug 19) of the Aug 15 CME resulted in a Kp=6 episode. The Bz component of
the IMF has now turned fully Northward, thereby ending the geomagnetic
storm.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 075, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Aug 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 111
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : ///
AK WINGST              : 020
ESTIMATED AP           : 019
ESTIMATED ISN          : 069, BASED ON 25 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.