SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2014 Sep 23 1239 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40923
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Sep 2014, 1209UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 23 Sep 2014 until 25 Sep 2014)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Sep 2014  10CM FLUX: 134 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Sep 2014  10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Sep 2014  10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 012
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low with only a single notable C
flare peaking at 19:51 UT at C1.6 level and originating from NOAA AR 2172.
Background X-ray radiation has steadily increased to the C level.  All 6
active regions on disc appear stable with NOAA AR 2172 the most significant
potential flaring source. C flares should be expected with a chance for an
M-flare especially from this region.  The slightly enhanced proton levels
(below the event threshold) observed yesterday have meanwhile settled to
almost nominal values.  An at least partial halo CME was recorded in
SOHO/LASCO C2 data starting at around 7:36 UT. Analysis is ongoing
regarding its source and potential impact, but first analysis seems to
point to a source on the far side similar to the second CME observed
yesterday. Solar wind speed has been stable, mainly within the 400-460 km/s
range. Total magnetic field has slightly increased from between 5-6 nT to
between 6-7 nT with Bz variable but now predominantly negative up to -6nT.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K
Dourbes 2-3).  Later today we may see the arrival of a coronal hole high
speed stream likely to last over the coming days. Associated enhanced
geomagnetic activity (periods of active conditions) is possible.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 089, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 22 Sep 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 130
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 016
AK WINGST              : 010
ESTIMATED AP           : 009
ESTIMATED ISN          : 068, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.