SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2016 May 25 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60525
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 May 2016, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 25 May 2016 until 27 May 2016)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 May 2016  10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 May 2016  10CM FLUX: 093 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 May 2016  10CM FLUX: 089 / AP: 013
COMMENT: NOAA 2546 produced the strongest flare of the period, a B9.5 flare
peaking at 21:07UT on 24 May. The region remains the largest sunspot group
currently visible, producing occasional B-class flares that are often
accompanied by jet-like eruptions. The associated coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) had no earth-directed component. The other sunspot groups (NOAA 2548
and tiny Catania 81) remained quiet.

Mostly quiet conditions are expected, with a small chance on an isolated
C-class flare.

Solar wind speed mostly varied between 380 and 450 km/s. Bz undulated
between -3 and +4 nT, with the Interplanetary Magnetic Field directed away
from the Sun. A negative coronal hole (CH) on the northern hemisphere
started transiting the central meridian around noon on 24 May. Quiet to
unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected until the arrival of
the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) associated with the wind stream
from the small negative southern CH. A sector boundary crossing may precede
or coincide with the CIR. The arrival of these structures is possible late
on 25 May, but more likely on 26 May, and may result in active geomagnetic
conditions with a slight chance on a minor storming episode.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 031, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 24 May 2016
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 027
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 094
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 007
AK WINGST              : 006
ESTIMATED AP           : 006
ESTIMATED ISN          : 024, BASED ON 27 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.