SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2014 Apr 17 1326 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40417
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Apr 2014, 1304UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 Apr 2014 until 19 Apr 2014)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Apr 2014  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Apr 2014  10CM FLUX: 184 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Apr 2014  10CM FLUX: 188 / AP: 005
COMMENT: Eleven sunspot groups were reported by NOAA today. NOAA ARs 2035,
2036, and 2037 (Catania numbers 24, 25, and 26 respectively) maintain the
beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. The strongest
flare of the past 24 hours was the M1.0 flare peaking at 19:59 UT yesterday
in the NOAA AR 2035 (Catania number 24). The flare was associated with an
EIT wave and a weak coronal dimming, but the associated CME was narrow and
is not expected to arrive at the Earth. We expect further flaring activity
on the C-level, especially in the NOAA ARs 2035 and 2037 (Catania numbers
24 and 26 respectively) as well as in the NOAA AR 2042 (no Catania number
yet) that yesterday appeared from behind the east solar limb, with a good
chance for an M-class event.  Since yesterday evening the Earth is situated
inside a solar wind structure with an elevated interplanetary magnetic
field magnitude (occasionally up to 10 nT). It may be a weak ICME or the
compression region on the flank of an ICME that missed the Earth. The solar
origin of this structure is not clear. The north-south magnetic field
component Bz was not strong, so no significant geomagnetic disturbance
resulted (K index stayed below 4). Currently the solar wind speed is around
380 km/s and the IMF magnitude is around 8 nT. We expect quiet to unsettled
(K index up to 3) geomagnetic conditions, with active geomagnetic
conditions (K = 4) possible, but unlikely.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 145, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 16 Apr 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 184
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 012
AK WINGST              : 004
ESTIMATED AP           : 004
ESTIMATED ISN          : 139, BASED ON 29 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
16  1954  1959 2004 S14E09 M1.0 1N       24/2035      II/2 
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.