SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2014 Nov 27 1256 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41127
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 27 Nov 2014, 1211UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 27 Nov 2014 until 29 Nov 2014)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Nov 2014  10CM FLUX: 173 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Nov 2014  10CM FLUX: 175 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Nov 2014  10CM FLUX: 177 / AP: 004
COMMENT: NOAA 2222 developed close to the southeast limb and is actively
flaring. It was responsible for at least 10 C-class flares, including a
C8.2 flare peaking at 00:47UT which was the strongest event of the
observing period. Departing region NOAA 2209 was the only other region to
produce a C-class flare. The other regions were quiet, with NOAA 2219
having some mixed polarities. The x-ray background flux increased from
about B9 to nearly C2. A filament eruption was observed in the NW quadrant
around 16:00UT on 26 November. A slow CME first observed in LASCO/C2 at
17:36 may have been associated to it. The other filaments were quiet. None
of the observed CMEs are directed to Earth.      Low-level M-class flares
are possible.     A sector boundary crossing (SBC) occurred around 03:00UT.
IMF turned towards the Sun. Solar wind speed gradually increased from about
300 to 400 km/s. Bz varied between -7 and +9 nT, but was mostly positive
after the SBC. The geomagnetic field was quiet. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period not
excluded.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 115, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 26 Nov 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 171
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 008
AK WINGST              : 003
ESTIMATED AP           : 003
ESTIMATED ISN          : 091, BASED ON 08 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224                                           #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491                                           #
#                                                                    #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be.  Please do not reply #
# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to     #
# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use      #
# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead.                                   #
# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php        #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.