SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2014 Oct 22 1246 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41022
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Oct 2014, 1210UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Oct 2014 until 24 Oct 2014)
SOLAR FLARES  : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability
>=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase,
but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Oct 2014  10CM FLUX: 204 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Oct 2014  10CM FLUX: 208 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Oct 2014  10CM FLUX: 210 / AP: 011
COMMENT: Three M-class flares were detected in the past 24 hours, all of
them produced by the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192). The strongest
flare was the M8.7 flare peaking at 01:59 UT. Based on the still incomplete
SOHO/LASCO data and the absence of conspicuous eruptive signatures in the
SDO/AIA data, we conclude that there was no CME associated with this flare.
We expect flaring activity mostly on the M-level in this group, with a good
chance for an X-class flare. As the Catania sunspot group 88 approaches the
solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to
a geoeffective CME and a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow
(around 460 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are
expected to remain so.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 095, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Oct 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 151
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 199
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 028
AK WINGST              : 017
ESTIMATED AP           : 017
ESTIMATED ISN          : 082, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
21  1335  1338 1340 ////// M1.2     510  ///////      III/2II/2 
22  0116  0159 0228 ////// M8.7     580  88/2192      IV/1 
22  0511  0517 0521 ////// M2.7          88/2192      
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.