SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2016 Dec 09 1249 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 61209
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Dec 2016, 1248UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 09 Dec 2016 until 11 Dec 2016)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Dec 2016  10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Dec 2016  10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Dec 2016  10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 015
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. Flaring has
been at the B-class level. Active Region (AR) 2615 (Mcintosh class:Cao;
Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, producing all the B-class flares.
However, The region is now on the West solar limb and will soon pass off
the solar disk. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been
detected, however a front sided partial halo CME was observed heading
towards the solar North was seen around 11:00 yesterday in coronagraph
observations, however the source region is unclear, and could possibly be a
low density, slow, polar crown filament eruption. Solar protons have
remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is
expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a reasonable chance of
C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares.
The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 475 and 750 km/s over the past
24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated between 3 nT and
12 nT. The Bz component has fluctuated between -10 and +10 nT. Geomagnetic
conditions ranged between Kp index 2-4 (NOAA) and local K index 2-5
(Dourbes) over the past 24 hours, with the enhanced values occurring due to
the negative Bz and high speed solar wind generated from a large negative
polarity Southern polar trans-equatorial coronal hole (CH). Enhanced solar
wind conditions are expected to persist over the next couple of days due to
CH High Speed Stream (HSS). As a consequence Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next few days.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 022, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 08 Dec 2016
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 075
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : ///
AK WINGST              : 030
ESTIMATED AP           : 024
ESTIMATED ISN          : 014, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224                                           #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491                                           #
#                                                                    #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be.  Please do not reply #
# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to     #
# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use      #
# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead.                                   #
# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php        #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.