SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2018 Feb 21 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 80221
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Feb 2018, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Feb 2018 until 23 Feb 2018)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Feb 2018  10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Feb 2018  10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Feb 2018  10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 015
COMMENT: There are no sunspot regions on the visible hemisphere of the Sun
and flaring level is very low. The chance for a C flare in the next 24
hours is estimated at 5%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind density (recorded by DSCOVR) started rising at 03:50 UT on
February 21, followed by a rise in the magnitude of the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) from 2 to 9 nT at 05:20 UT. The solar wind speed
increased from about 350 to 400 km/s at 07:25 UT. These signs are
indicative of a Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR) leading a High Speed
Stream (HSS) associated with the negative polarity southern polar coronal
hole that passed the central meridian a couple of days ago. The IMF was
mainly directed towards the Sun and Bz was below -5 nT most of the time
between 07:30 and 08:30 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to be enhanced
on February 21, 22 and 23, with speeds probably exceeding 500 km/s.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0
and 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to active levels (K
Dourbes < 5) are expected on February 21, 22 and 23, with a slight chance
for minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5).

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Feb 2018
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 000
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 068
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 006
AK WINGST              : 005
ESTIMATED AP           : 005
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.