SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2017 Aug 22 1300 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 70822
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Aug 2017, 1259UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Aug 2017 until 24 Aug 2017)
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Aug 2017  10CM FLUX: 087 / AP: 027
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Aug 2017  10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Aug 2017  10CM FLUX: 087 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Active Region (AR) 2671 (McIntosh class: Fkc; Mag.type: Beta-
Gamma) and AR 2672 (McIntosh class: Dao; Mag.type: Beta) produced three
C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest flare was C3.0 flare
peaking at 17:57 UT yesterday. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections
(CMEs) have been detected. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at
background levels over the past 24 hours. There are no potentially
geoeffective coronal holes on the Sun. More C-class flares are expected
over the next 24 hours with some probability of M-class flares.
Solar wind parameters are still under influences of a coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). During the past 24 hours solar wind speeds remained
stable around 600 km/s with  two brief increases till around 670 km/s
(22:30 UT yesterday and 07 UT today). Total filed strength increased till
9nT at 02 UT today, simultaneously the Bz component reached a maximum
southward deflection of -9 nT. The interplanetary Kp index increased from 3
till 6 reaching moderate storm level (00-03 UT), minor storm level (Kp=5
during 03-06UT). Later Kp index returned to quiet conditions again. The
local station at Dourbes reported values of up to K=4. Next two days active
geomagnetic conditions can be expected, isolated episode of minor
geomagnetic storm is not excluded.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 061, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Aug 2017
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 050
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 087
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 026
AK WINGST              : 010
ESTIMATED AP           : 012
ESTIMATED ISN          : 063, BASED ON 27 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.