SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2015 Aug 30 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50830
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Aug 2015, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 30 Aug 2015 until 01 Sep 2015)
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase,
but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Aug 2015  10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Aug 2015  10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Sep 2015  10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 011
COMMENT: Solar activity remained dominated by active region 2403 which
produced an M1.4 flare peaking at 3:30UT.
Flaring at M level remains possible from region 2403 as it is rounding the
West limb with also a slight chance for an X flare. Afterwards flaring is
expected to be atmost at C level.
The warning condition for proton events is maintained for another day.
SDO/AIA 304 images show a filament eruption near N20E15 after 5:00UT. We
await coronagraph data to assess a possible related CME.
No Earth directed CME's were recorded so far.
Solar wind speed was stable in the 430-470km/s range under the influence of
a coronal hole high speed stream. Total magnetic field was in the 5-8nT
range with a general downward trend while Bz was variable.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3) with a short
episode of active conditions locally at the start of the period (K Dourbes
1-4).
Solar wind speeds will show a general decline as the high speed stream
influence passes, with associated quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions. From late September 1 onwards the equatorial coronal hole that
crossed the central meridian late yesterday may become geoeffective.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 053, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 29 Aug 2015
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 100
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 017
AK WINGST              : ///
ESTIMATED AP           : 018
ESTIMATED ISN          : 055, BASED ON 28 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
30  0201  0330 0423 ////// M1.4          ///2403      
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.