SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2017 Sep 21 1239 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 70921
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Sep 2017, 1239UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Sep 2017 until 23 Sep 2017)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Sep 2017  10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Sep 2017  10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Sep 2017  10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 016
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours the solar activity was very low with only a
few B-class flares recorded. The major flare was a B8.4-class flare at
19:32 UT attributed to the Catania sunspot group 55 (NOAA active region
2680). The returning region has been assigned a new number: Catania sunspot
group 56 (NOAA active region 2681). Both regions show a simple photospheric
magnetic field configuration (alpha) and are unlikely to produce any strong
flaring activity. We expect the solar activity to remain low with some
B-class flares and a slight chance for C-class flares.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed and the solar protons remained at
background level over the past 24 hours.

The Earth is currently inside a slow solar wind flow that has declined
further from 500 to 400 Km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude
remained below 6 nT and the Bz component fluctuated between -4 and 4 nT
being mainly negative. A relatively small equatorial coronal hole in the
south hemisphere has crossed the central meridian yesterday Sept 20 around
16:30 UT. The associated fast solar wind is expected to arrive at Earth on
Sept 23 late afternoon.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled with Kp (NOAA) and local K
(Dourbes) indexes ranging between 1-3 and 0-2 respectively. The geomagnetic
conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettled until Sept 23 when the
fast solar will reach Earth.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 023, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Sep 2017
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 012
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 074
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 012
AK WINGST              : 012
ESTIMATED AP           : 012
ESTIMATED ISN          : 021, BASED ON 28 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224                                           #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491                                           #
#                                                                    #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be.  Please do not reply #
# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to     #
# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use      #
# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead.                                   #
# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php        #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.