SIDC Ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | SIDC Ursigram |
| SIDC code | meu |
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Latest issue
:Issued: 2013 May 19 1327 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 30519 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 May 2013, 1305UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 May 2013 until 21 May 2013) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) PREDICTIONS FOR 19 May 2013 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 029 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 May 2013 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 014 PREDICTIONS FOR 21 May 2013 10CM FLUX: 128 / AP: 007 COMMENT:Only C-class flares occurred in past 24h. The strongest one was a C3.4 from NOAA AR 1750 with peak at 09:15 UT. NOAA AR 1748 has lost complexity and has now a beta-delta magnetic configuration, it still can produce M flares and, less likely, X-class flares. The 10 MeV proton flux has descended below the threshold of 10 protons/cm2-s-sr, for the first time since May 15. Geomagnetic activity has ranged from unsettled to active in past 24h. It can reach up to major storm levels when the May 17 CME arrives to the Earth today. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 087, BASED ON 12 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 18 May 2013 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 132 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 019 AK WINGST : 019 ESTIMATED AP : 022 ESTIMATED ISN : 086, BASED ON 14 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.